On many occasions during the last
25 years, the sphere of influence focused around the personage
of Franck Biancheri has, de facto, provided fertile ground
for the correct anticipation of major historic events: the
fall of the Iron Curtain, the crisis of the European Commission,
the collapse of the Dollar and the global systemic crisis…
are some of the most striking predictions in the story (which
is still unfolding) of this sphere of influence whose very
diverse features (European context, network organisation,
political objectives, independent state of mind…) allows
one to suppose that they play some role, without doubt,
in this « ability ».
Indeed, if one’s correct anticipation
is the result of chance, the second can be good luck, but
by a third, it becomes possible to hope that some rules
and a rational approach are at play.
The work done within this sphere
of influence, among which the most illustrative is that
conducted by LEAP (Laboratoire Européen d'Anticipation Politique)
through its monthly publication, the GEAB (GlobalEurope
Anticipation Bulletin), has even forced the respect of academics,
giving rise to a need for a contemporary approach, which
is the purpose of this manual: What is political anticipation
(and what it isn’t)? What is its use? What are the tools,
principles and rules which shape it? What are its limits?
These are the questions which this
small manual will try and answer.